THE DYNAMICS OF INDONESIAN FOOD PRODUCTION AMID GLOBAL GEOPOLITICAL CONFLICTS

Abstract

National food production in an era of global uncertainty can no longer be explained solely by domestic factors such as land, climate, technology, and agricultural policies. Global geopolitical dynamics—including conflicts in the Middle East, shipping disruptions in the Red Sea, and potential disrupcions to strategic energy routes like the Strait of Hormuz—expand the determinants of food production through indirect transmission mechanisms. These shocks affect production costs, distribution, and supply stability via energy prices, fertilizer availability, and logistics costs. This study aims to analyze the dynamics of Indonesian rice production within the context of global geopolitical pressures, identify its transmission mechanisms, and formulate adaptive policy implications oriented toward food system resilience. The approach employed is descriptive-analytical, based on secondary data from BPS, FAO, the World Bank, OECD, UNCTAD, and reputable scientific literature. The results show that Indonesia's paddy production increased from 53.14 million tons of dry milled grain (GKG) in 2024 to 60.21 million tons in 2025, driven by the expansion of harvested areas and supportive seasonal conditions. However, energy volatility, rising fertilizer costs, and logistical disruptions underscore the role of geopolitics as an external determinant that amplifies food system vulnerability. Therefore, a policy reorientation is required, moving from a production-based approach toward a systemic approach that integrates energy, logistics, and geopolitical risk dimensions to strengthen national food resilience.